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An appraisal of rail reopenings in the UK for Railfuture Scotland (http://www.railfuturescotland.org.uk/news/bn68.pdf) has underlined the enormous discrepancy between predicted and actual demand say Wealden’s Liberal Democrats. This has caused the local party to cast even more doubt on the validity of the Lewes–Uckfield Study which was conducted last year between East Sussex County Council and Network Rail.
The increasingly-discredited 2008 Study has also prompted Chris Bowers, the Lib Dem’s Parliamentary candidate for Wealden at the next general election, to roundly criticize ESCC’s officials by saying: “The only obstacle to the Lewes–Uckfield line reopening is the attitude of officials at County Hall.”
The theoretical modelling tools used to predict passenger demand were deployed by Mott MacDonald on behalf of Network Rail (NR). At that time the Lewes–Uckfield Project Manager Chris Curtis, who was leading NR’s team of railway engineers, told the Wealden Line Campaign that consultants were being brought in only because “Network Rail doesn’t have much experience in this field”. Frank Shorter from Mott MacDonald was duly appointed as he has a long-established working relationship with East Sussex County Council, having been closely involved in the past with its officers whenever dealing with the Lewes–Uckfield rail link.
Mr. Bowers says “To me, the case for the line has existed for years. I believe last year’s feasibility study, which concluded there was no business case for a reopened Lewes– Uckfield line, was flawed, and these new findings further undermine it.” He goes on to point out that the research reveals that trains on the Edinburgh–Bathgate line eventually carried four times the passenger numbers predicted; the Stirling–Alloa line carried three times more in its first three months than the modelling tools had predicted; whilst the Ebbw Vale–Cardiff line carried two and a half times more than forecast in its first eight months.
Ken Sutherland, a research officer for Railfuture Scotland, says pessimistic passenger demand estimates are still being applied by Scottish and Westminster Governments whereby many worthwhile projects are unfairly rejected at the initial discussion stage as ‘unjustified’ or ‘not worthwhile’. He goes on to urge that the criteria used to analyse such projects needs to be “radically improved” in order to “more accurately reflect the real life experience and actual public usage of new rail links which invariably far exceeds the unsatisfactory ‘theoretical estimates’, which are still unfairly employed to reject many rail improvement projects, which would otherwise be well used – if they were to be offered.”
ESCC is now laying the blame for the outcome of the 2008 Study primarily at the door of the Department for Transport and attempting to hide behind another excuse – the guidelines known as NATA (New Approach to Transport Appraisal). However, the Government is itself reviewing NATA which notoriously factors against rail schemes a loss of fuel duty to the exchequer when people switch from buying petrol to train fares.
It is also reported that ESCC’s Lead Member for Transport, Cllr Matthew Lock, has agreed this week to write to the Secretary of State for Transport, Lord Adonis, seeking a re-examination of the Lewes–Uckfield Study. However, the Wealden Line Campaign believes no one should interpret this in any way as emerging support from the County Council towards reopening.
Mr. Bowers has also said he feels the biggest obstacle is at County Hall, not Whitehall, adding: “We hear all the right noises from county officials about East Sussex County Council being committed to re-opening the line, but evidence shows the opposite”. Being present at the recent public presentation on the proposed town centre development in Uckfield, he heard for himself ESCC’s plan to – yet again – sever the protected trackbed with a new road it wants ‘at grade’ so it can avoid paying for a bridge and instead load this cost onto the rail scheme.
The Lib Dem’s candidate has also been in touch with the Kilbride Group which is overseeing contributions from developers fund 80% of the cost of reopening of the Bere Alston–Tavistock rail link for Devon County Council. Here in East Sussex in 2005 when launching its ‘Wealdenway’ project, the parent Kilbride Group brought in civil engineers to establish exactly how the private sector could substantially fund the reopening of Lewes–Uckfield. Despite having the full co-operation and assistance from Network Rail and tangible progress being made with local authorities, it is evident to everyone in the Wealden Line Campaign and a great many others that officials and some individuals in high office at East Sussex County Council were out to stop it – and “once and for all”. The latest Missing Link Online provides more evidence of this. In drawing attention to the new refuse incinerator, now under construction at Newhaven, Mr. Bowers points out that “the county council had originally spoken about the advantages of having a railway line close by”. As the Campaign suspected at the time, this was both a deliberate ploy and a dishonest, cynical attempt to lessen opposition during the planning procedure. Of course, it is no surprise to subsequently learn that all this waste will be coming in by road after all. We believe this drives a horse and cart – or in this case a procession of heavy dustcarts – through ESCC’s ‘green’ policies and its professed concern for the environment of the County. Mr. Bowers concluded: “It all points to a roads-dominated county council that’s getting in the way of what people want and the environment needs: a railway line between Lewes and Uckfield”.
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